Toronto real estate. JULY RESALE MARKET

     Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,922 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system in July 2011, representing a 23% increase over July 2010. Total sales through the first seven months of this year amounted to 55,863 – down by 1.3% compared to the same period in 2010. After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the July figure continued to point to an annual sales result close to 90,000 – in line with results from the previous six months.
      “Strong home sales continued in July, with a substantial rebound over last summer’s slow-down brought about by higher mortgage rates, new lending guidelines and misconceptions about the HST. The greatest rebound was seen in the condominium apartment segment in the City of Toronto,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “If the current pace of sales holds up, we could see the second best year on record under the current TREB market area.”
      The average selling price in July was $459,122 – up by almost ten % compared to the July 2010 average of $418,675.
      “Tight market conditions have boosted the annual rate of price growth this year. However, the listings situation is starting to improve. A better supplied market later this year and into 2012 would lead to a more sustainable rate of price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

       Competition from the resale market has impacted demand for new homes, comments the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. With sales of newly built contemporary homes potentially suffering, the 0.3% reduction is hoped to increase interest from buyers and overseas investors.
       Despite worries that the US economic downturn may impact sales, however, there is still overall confidence in the Canadian housing market. A study from the Real Property Association of Canada, revealed yesterday in the Canadian Real Estate Magazine, has found that the country's property market is still growing, and has been for the last eight quarters.
       “The market is largely viewed as stable and attractive, which bodes well for future investment and development,” says the report.

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MORTGAGE RATES ARE ON THE MOVE

Fixed Rates: 
Have gone up.  
5 year term fixed rates range from 3.94% to 4.09% depending on "real deal" vs pre-approval, size of mortgage, and length of time until closing.

Variable Rates:
Have gone down a little.
5 year variable rate 2.20% (prime minus 0.80%)
3 year variable rate 2.15%
The rate used by lenders to qualify borrowers has gone up from 5.19% to 5.39%

Mortgage Term	Best Mortgage Rate (as low as...)
1 Year	2.54%
3 Year	3.70%
4 Year	3.89%
5 Year	Fixed - 3.94% Variable 5 Year- 2.20% (Prime - 0.80%)
7 Year	5.10%
10 Year	5.40%
Prime Rate	3.0%

Mortgage rates subject to change without notice.

Lowest rate depends on closing date, CMHC or conventional, owner occupied and mortgage amount.

If you have any questions about mortgage and interest rates, call

 Alexandre Malkhassiants, Sales Representative and Mortgage Specialist
Right at Home Realty Inc., Real Estate Brokerage
Office: (416) 391-3232
Cell: (416) 723-9383
E-mail: amalkhass@rogers.com
Website: Toronto real estateWebsite: Ontario real estateBlog: Lowest Canada mortgage rates

Toronto real estate. CANADA HOME PRICES INCREASED

Canadian home resale prices rose for a 13th straight month in May, the longest streak since September 2006, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed.

The monthly gain of 1.3 percent was led by a 2.3 percent increase in Ottawa, followed by 1.8 percent in Montreal, according to a report today by National Bank Financial. Overall prices rose 13.6 percent from May 2009. The index has tracked home-price changes in six Canadian cities -- Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver -- since February 2000.

Housing investment should slow through this year and into 2011 after spending was pulled forward by low mortgage rates and temporary tax credits, the Bank of Canada said July 22. The central bank raised its key lending rate for a second month to 0.75 percent on July 20 and said further action would be “weighed carefully” against an economic recovery.

Alexandre Malhassiants is an active mortgage professional with Centum Mortgage Inc.  and sales representative. Have a question? Please e-mail amalkhass@rogers.com or call 416- 723-9383.

FORECLOSURE IN CANADA: YES OR NO?

Canadians will be spared a U.S.-style wave of foreclosures when the housing market corrects and interest rates rise, according to a report from DBRS Ltd. examining Canada’s $1-trillion mortgage market.

DBRS expects housing prices to fall and acknowledges that the soaring trajectory of consumer debt is worrying. But the debt-rating firm’s study nonetheless paints a picture of a home lending business that is on much more stable footing than the one in the U.S. before its bust.

For that reason, any housing correction in Canada is likely to have a muted effect on the financial sector, nothing like the systemic problem that the U.S. downturn created by crippling banks and mortgage insurers.

“You’re not likely to have factors supporting further [home] price increases; you could have factors leading to price corrections, but they shouldn’t be anywhere near the scale we’ve seen in the U.S.,” said study author Jerry Marriott, who specializes in rating mortgage-backed bonds for DBRS.

“There are just some fundamental characteristics of the Canadian market that make lending in Canada less risky than in the U.S. – a combination of the fact that the banks have continued to use prudent underwriting and maintained better capital ratios.”

The report echoes the conclusions of major banks such as Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Toronto-Dominion Bank. They also call for moderate cooling in house prices after their long runup, as more homes come on the market and higher rates and prices force some buyers out of the market.

CIBC World Markets economist Benjamin Tal said this week that prices might fall by as much as 10 per cent in the next two years, but that a “violent” correction like the United States experienced remains unlikely. TD Bank recently put out a report predicting prices could fall by 2.7 per cent in 2011.

If a correction happens, Mr. Marriott said that it’s unlikely Canadian banks will have to foreclose on many mortgages, saving Canada from one of the factors that exacerbated the U.S. plunge, when banks seized homes and tried to sell them at vastly reduced prices.

Laws in Canada are more lender-friendly, forcing people to keep paying mortgages, and banks were more careful about who they lent to.

Canadians are also less likely to end up under water – owing more than their home is worth – because they generally have more equity in their homes. For the decade and a half leading up to the U.S. housing bust, U.S. borrowers had “consistently” less equity than Canadians, by 8 per cent on average, DBRS found.

What’s more, DBRS argues that while Canadians are racking up debt at a fast pace, they are nowhere near as indebted as some analysts assert, and much less in hock than Americans, so should better be able to handle the stress of higher rates or a housing correction.

While the widely watched measure of debt-to-personal-disposable income shows that Canadians are more indebted than Americans, DBRS argues that the gauge should be adjusted to reflect differences in the two countries, such as the fact that Americans pay lower taxes but have to pay health-care bills out of pocket.

When that’s taken into consideration, at “the end of 2009, Canadian households remained financially less leveraged by 10 per cent to 45 per cent compared with U.S. households,” the report said.

“The Canadian market has been doing just fine, but it is not without risk, and [showing that] is what we’re trying to do in this study,” Mr. Marriott said. CTV.ca

Toronto real estate. TORONTO REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

Record breaking warm temperatures in March helped bring out buyers during the first two weeks of the month.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 4,353 existing home sales, up 70 per cent from the same time last year, when the market was in recession.

But sales were also strong enough to break the mid-month peak set in March of 2006 by 16 per cent, according to the board.

“The spring-like weather in the first half of March brought the first green sprouts of the recurring spring market,” said board president Tom Lebour.

The average price for March mid-month transactions was $440,153, up 20 per cent over last year.

Some good news for buyers was that new listings improved by 34 per cent over last year.

“Look for double digit price increases to cease later in 2010, as new listings rebound from the low levels experienced in 2009,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s senior manager of market analysis. “Increased listings will give buyers more choice, resulting in less upward pressure on home prices.”

If you want to know more about Toronto real estate, call sales representative and mortgage agent Alexandre (Alex) Malkhassiants, Right at Home Realty,  with all your questions: (416) 723-9383 (cell).

Toronto real estate. Canadian housing market sound

Canada's hot housing market received a clean bill of health from a major Canadian bank Friday, dismissing concerns voiced by the Bank of Canada that consumers may be taking on too much debt.

In a report on house and stock market rallies, economists with CIBC World Markets argue that the central bank's concerns are exaggerated, even though the bank was justified in raising them.

"Canada is not doomed to see a U.S.-style housing and mortgage blow-up," wrote CIBC's chief economist, Avery Shenfeld.

"The lessons for the U.S. were not that an extended period of low rates caused a mortgage and housing blow-up. It was a massive failure to supervise the worst excess of the American mortgage market that caused the trouble."

Last week, the Bank of Canada called record household debt the top risk facing the country's financial system, a warning repeated in Toronto earlier this week by the central bank's governor, Mark Carney.

The central bank did note that the risk to Canada's banking system was small, but worried that when interest rates rise to normal levels, up to 10 per cent of households could face difficulties in meeting monthly payment requirements.

Fresh data released Friday showed that spending by Canadian households averaged $71,360 last year, two per cent more than in 2007, with shelter representing about 20 per cent of the load.

Others have also expressed concern about consumer debt levels. In a note Friday, Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri said at current rates the debt burdens being piled on by Canadians could reach American and British levels "just before they keeled over."

CIBC's Shenfeld and Benjamin Tal say their analysis shows that there is basis for the concern, but there are also critical factors that make the Canadian situation different.

By their calculation, the current $350,000 average selling price for a home in Canada is about seven per cent too high.

But they also say that with housing starts on the rise, thereby increasing the supply, the price of housing in Canada will moderate, not collapse.

And Canadian households are not exposed as their southern neighbours were to a market collapse.

Some have substantial equity in their homes and could downsize. Others, about 40 per cent of mortgage holders, have high debt payments because they are making accelerated pay-downs on principal, which they could suspend.

They note that while mortgage interest rates average about 4.4 per cent, payments as a share of after-tax income are higher - at the level they would be if rates were effectively six per cent.

And "history suggests many will jump into fixed mortgages" once variable rates come under upward pressure.

"The Bank of Canada was justified in raising these concerns, but once you get into the details, some of those threats don't appear quite as ominous," Shenfeld explained in an interview.

The CIBC economists agree with Carney that interest rates will rise, likely starting in the second half of next year, but "we don't see that as endangering a bubble either in the mortgage market or the equity market."

In a separate analysis, Shenfeld, Peter Buchanan and Krishen Rangasamy, all of CIBC, judged that the equity markets in Toronto still have room to grow even if some analysts believe stocks are overpriced already.

And they predict the Canadian dollar will average $1.05 US next year.

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